In response to those who believe that the pilot shortage is over.

I see a very short sighted approach to pilot supply and demand here. The pilot supply did not change the demand went down due to a slowing economy and a lack of aircraft. The two main factors have always been retirement and growth. Now we have to factor in equipment availability to the formula. The US is probably short about 1,000 airliners from the plan just a few years back due to certification, delivery, supply chain, and engine repair problems. If we had those aircraft today and only half were for growth vs replacement that would be 12 pilot/AC X 500 AC = 6,000 pilots Add 4,000-5,000 retirements per year = 11,000 pilots. BOOM instant shortage.
 
 The last time we hired six times the previous peaks in Major airline pilot hiring (5,000) from mid 2021 to the end of 2023 (30,000 pilots at the Majors), the international market had not fully recovered. Add that to the mix and it could be even worse than before. It is not over just delayed!
 
 Kit Darby

Tree fiddy/month!

Kinda like dollar cost averaging?????

And A&p shortage....

Avionics Shortage......

Bring your car to the garage, you'll notice a general mechanic shortage there also.  Transmission job used to be a few days ...now it's a few months.

never ever trust a guy who urges you to do something that he makes money off of. And if you look up that in a dictionary, you will find a picture of Kit Darby.  You have been warned... There is no PILOT shortage, they never was, and there never will be.

None of you survive long enough in the air to ever push over the surplus threshold?

When you have an industry that requires a serious amount of up-front training cost, then pay at low hours just to hopefully, eventually "make it" only to realize your pay never kept up with inflation and there are industries around you that have similar or better schedules for similar or better pay, then you ask yourself, is the risk, stress, schedule, and sucky pay worth it?

Let someone else do it for less.

I bailed.

And I don't even fly them.

Just got spooked by the retards they keep around maintaining them.

Don't talk to the one cat on base who seems competent.  Go around and interview the 5 other guys he works with who don't have a clue.  You'll soon see, Every base is being held afloat by one brain bug and all the rest are drones.

What happens when the brain bug quits?

Been watching these cycles since the late 50s.  And, yes, ancient.