Pilot Shortage  

In response to those who believe that the pilot shortage is over.

I see a very short sighted approach to pilot supply and demand here. The pilot supply did not change the demand went down due to a slowing economy and a lack of aircraft. The two main factors have always been retirement and growth. Now we have to factor in equipment availability to the formula. The US is probably short about 1,000 airliners from the plan just a few years back due to certification, delivery, supply chain, and engine repair problems. If we had those aircraft today and only half were for growth vs replacement that would be 12 pilot/AC X 500 AC = 6,000 pilots Add 4,000-5,000 retirements per year = 11,000 pilots. BOOM instant shortage.
 
 The last time we hired six times the previous peaks in Major airline pilot hiring (5,000) from mid 2021 to the end of 2023 (30,000 pilots at the Majors), the international market had not fully recovered. Add that to the mix and it could be even worse than before. It is not over just delayed!
 
 Kit Darby