Original Message

There is definitely a pilot shortage right now.  It seems to run in cycles, with one apperaing every decade or so, and then being ended, mostly by economic downturns or sometimes by global events.

The United States is set up where air travel or automobile travel are a persons only travel options.  We don't have a viable commercial rail transport system so as it stands, the US is dependent on air travel for the foreseeable future, creating an outsize need for pilots.  

My two cents 

The global air travel market is soft and air cargo is down, likely due to inflation.  Domestic travel is strong right now.  To me this indicates regional airline hiring wil probably remain strong while legacy airlines may drop off a bit.  There is a definite window of opportunity, but conservatively I would plan on being at regional for a long time (10-12 years) and one should plan accordingly.  

Another pandemic could easily put the brakes everything, as could a global recession or banking crisis.  How probable you think either of those events are should dictate your next career move.  If you are going to make the move I would consider doing it sooner rather than later, as the window of opportunity may be quickly slammed shut. 

I do think the retirement age is going to change in the near future. The policy is already written. People are saying it will go to 70.  I think it's going to as long as a pilot can get a medical.  This will have a huge impact on the industry.  The major airlines will slow hiring, which will cause regional airline hiring to slow.  Some airlines will declare bankruptcy or merge and renegotiate pay and bonuses.  No mystery here, it's what happened the last time.  It will effectively end what we are seeing now.