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"the proportion of accidents associated with pilots having longer duty periods is higher than the proportion of longer duty periods for all pilots. For 10– 12 hours of duty time, the proportion of accident pilots with this length of duty period is 1.7 times as large as for all pilots. For pilots with 13 or more hours of duty, the proportion of accident pilot duty periods is over five and a half times as high."

 

https://www.eurocockpit.be/sites/default/files/Goode-2003.pdf