Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

Beryl remains an impressive category 5 hurricane this morning.  
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined eye, expanding outflow, 
and a prominent outer band.  Overnight NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft data showed the minimum central pressure falling to about 
935 mb, and the Tail Doppler Radar measured 170 kt of wind at about 
500 m.  This supports the initial intensity of 145 kt for this 
advisory.

The hurricane is moving quickly to west-northwest at an estimated 
290/19 kt.  A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern 
United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to 
westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next 
few days.  The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the 
north and lies closest to the corrected consensus aid.  There is 
still increased uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 72 h, with 
the model guidance showing a large spread as Beryl emerges over the 
Gulf of Mexico.

Beryl's intensity forecast is also rather uncertain.  Model guidance 
all indicates that the hurricane will begin to weaken later today 
as Beryl encounters moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear.   Later 
on, factors such as the possible interaction with the Jamaican 
elevated terrain, dry air intrusions, and the structure of the 
vertical wind shear will all play a role in the rate of weakening.  
The models show quite a wide range of solutions, with guidance 
between a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane while it nears 
the Yucatan Peninsula.  The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the 
aids, showing Beryl as a major hurricane near Jamaica, reaching 
Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72 h before emerging as a tropical 
storm over the Gulf of Mexico. This is quite an uncertain forecast 
beyond a couple of days due to the aforementioned factors.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSY8Vz1Mvuk

You can't crush human spirit.