Msg ID:
2823561 |
Cat 5 +0/-0
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Author:Berry yall
7/2/2024 6:45:08 AM
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Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024
Beryl remains an impressive category 5 hurricane this morning.
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined eye, expanding outflow,
and a prominent outer band. Overnight NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data showed the minimum central pressure falling to about
935 mb, and the Tail Doppler Radar measured 170 kt of wind at about
500 m. This supports the initial intensity of 145 kt for this
advisory.
The hurricane is moving quickly to west-northwest at an estimated
290/19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern
United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to
westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next
few days. The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the
north and lies closest to the corrected consensus aid. There is
still increased uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 72 h, with
the model guidance showing a large spread as Beryl emerges over the
Gulf of Mexico.
Beryl's intensity forecast is also rather uncertain. Model guidance
all indicates that the hurricane will begin to weaken later today
as Beryl encounters moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. Later
on, factors such as the possible interaction with the Jamaican
elevated terrain, dry air intrusions, and the structure of the
vertical wind shear will all play a role in the rate of weakening.
The models show quite a wide range of solutions, with guidance
between a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane while it nears
the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the
aids, showing Beryl as a major hurricane near Jamaica, reaching
Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72 h before emerging as a tropical
storm over the Gulf of Mexico. This is quite an uncertain forecast
beyond a couple of days due to the aforementioned factors. |
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Msg ID:
2823562 |
Aftermath +0/-0
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Author:Carriacou
7/2/2024 7:13:19 AM
Reply to: 2823561
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSY8Vz1Mvuk
You can't crush human spirit. |
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