The FW guys are going to have to face the fact that the con artists sold them yet another version of The Great Pilot Shortage.

Get Loans! Go 100 thousand in debt! Airlines are hiring! You will make millions!! yadda yadda yadda

...meanwhile, back in reality, FedEx has said that there will be no more pilot hiring through 2024. That's like, 20 months plus. No more hiring. Now. 

Reports are that freight rates have crashed. Freight has a serious overcapacity now that pax airlines are doing a lot of post-pandemic flying and all there planes that can are hauling some freight in the baggage holds.

As for helicopter pilots, you say, but what about all those jobs that are being posted? Most of what you see are "phantom" jobs, jobs posted by people who post them without them being real to sell ad revenue on their sites. And many of the jobs aren't really seeking hires because their is serious overcapacity in all segments of the industry. HAA, for example. There are about 1000 air ambulances out there and only about 500 could be kept busy. 

In short there is no pilot shortage, never has been, never will be . What does exist is the tendency for scam artists to sell gullible people who "have a dream" a bill of goods, and a lot of gullible people to buy said bill of goods. 

Change my mind. 

interesting comments from current employees

https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/04/19/union-pacific-offers-50-000-sign-on-bonus-in-wyoming/

Agree with you and I dont have the ability to change your mind. 

transport people. 

I’ll take fresh coffee at 35,000 feet and a good union. If you can make the switch do it. The poor guy flying an R22 will get a chance to move up. Do yourself and the guy below you a favor.

What did you expect?

The poop is about to hit the fan. The Feds drive to lower inflation has set the ball in motion. Where it stops, nobody knows

It won't be pretty

Pilot hiring, especially on the FW side has been epic. Never has there been a time where RW pilots were actively recruited in the industry to fill the seats. You know, due to a shortage in qualified pilots!

FedEx has suspended hiring, that's true.  The part you left out was that they are also closing their European bases and will need to absorb those pilots into domestic side again.  Perhaps you left that part out on purpose to try to prove some point, or perhaps you're just ignorant.

AA, DAL, UAL, SW, F9, etc continue to hire. Frontier announced at RTAG last year their own RTP program.  I personally know several RW pilots with just a FW PPL who have been given a CJO with 50k and are working on their FW certs With that money.

Loans you say?? Those are a distant memory on the Faw side.  All of the regionals offer new hire bonuses that will pay off whatever debt one incurs in training.  Many offer RTP programs for RW guys and gals.

yes, there is a SHORTAGE of qualified FW pilots to meet the current demand.  Retirements at the Legacies combined with growth plans have created an opportunity never before seen.  

nice try

Never seen before?  Perhaps you havent been in the industry long enough. 

During the 1960's and early 1970's rapid expansion of airlines and pilots staying in the military because of Vietnam caused a pilot shortage.  Airlines leased aircraft for perspective low time pilots or even had their own aircraft so pilots could build flight time.  This was ended by the fuel crisis and the end of Vietnam flooding the industry with trained pilots.

In the late 1980's several airlines, including United and People Express, had internship programs, where college students were trained as flight engineeers on 727's and then flight instructed at their schools until they built enough time to eventually move into the right seat.  The programs ceased with the bankruptcy of People Express, and the post Gulf War recession.  The end of the Gulf War also ended stop-loss by the military once again flooding the market with trained pilots.

In the late 1990's the rapid expansion of regional airlines and the introduction of regional jets and code sharing, (which took nearly 50 percent of the mainline flying away from the major airlines), caused a shortage of pilots.  Regional airline Comair started its own flight school and schools like Flight Safety and All ATP's started programs where pilots could get their training in an airline structured environment and move into a regional jet with as little as 250 hours.  There was even something similar to RTAG called APTAP for networking.  9/11 ended it all pretty quickly.  Airlines furloughed pilots, sometimes for up to six years, the retirement age was changed for 60 to 65, and a few years later the Colgan crash in Buffalo ended the use of 250 hour pilot at regional airlines.

There is a pilots shortage and it will last as long as it lasts, it could be years, it could be months.  Impossible to predict a big market downturn, global conflict, or another pandemic.  

Airlines just furloughed pilots during COVID.  One regional airline famously terminated several classes of new hire pilots in training and found a loophole where they were not considered full employees so the airline did not have to pay severance or unemployment, or put them on a furlough list.

Regional carrier Express Jet went bankrupt last year.  Pilot shortages or not, companies still need to have some financial stability to meet demand.  Bankruptcy unually means an end to union contracts and bonuses.  Airlines have in the past declared bankruptcy for the sole purpose of reducing pay and bonuses.  American Airlines  did it once simply by restructuring their operating bond system.  

Retirements are fools gold.  An airline pilot once started a whole company called FAPA back in the 1980's, preaching the gospel of retirements leading to massive airline hiring.  It never materialized because of recessions and the retirement age being increased.  Upping the retirement age will probably happen, especially if people keep crying about severe shortages, and may put the brakes on airline hiring. 

I was referring more to "the great pilot shortage".  I think (my opinion) the only reason RW pilots are being recritued is that they are closer to the 1500 mark needed to fly Part 121.  Should they drop it down to say 750 hours it will likely be back to the helicopter time being counted with hot air balloon and glider time like it used to be.  Southwest, United, and a few regional used not count any helicopter time toward meeting hiring minimums.  

"Application instructions: place all helicopter time in the OTHER flight time category.  No helicopter time may be used to fulfill total flight time or PIC requirements". 

"FedEx has suspended hiring, that's true.  The part you left out was that they are also closing their European bases and will need to absorb those pilots into domestic side again.  Perhaps you left that part out on purpose to try to prove some point, or perhaps you're just ignorant."

Didn't you leave out the part of why FedEx is closing its bases? They are contracting and reducing fleet size due to downturns in the global cargo market.  Their goal is to cut $6 billion in operting expenses.  

Any RTAG'er who took a job flying a cargo Caravan or ATR for a FedEx feeder in the FedEx "Purple Runways" recruitment program just found out they will be staying at that Caravan or ATR job making $46,000 a year for the foreseeable future.  It is a reality of the industry.  Every flow though program has also had a flow back.  I would not be at all surprised if FedEx senda Purple Runways new hire pilots back to places like Mountain Air Cargo until they start hiring again. 

You should have an appreciation for how quickly things in the airline industry can change.  Not only when offering advice to others, but also when planning your own career.  The advice they used to give airline pilots remains true to this day:

Live modestly in an area with a low cost of living.

Have at least seven months salary in an emergency fund.

Have a backup career plan since you are always only a heartbeat away from losing your medical.

You aren't really hired until you complete IOE so don't make any big lifestyle changes until you finish IOE.

You aren't a Captain until you can hold a line as a Captain, so live like an FO until you can hold a line. 

In 5-10 years all the cargo haulers, FEDEX, UPS etc. will have no need for pilots. All their aircraft will be drones operated out of some command center.

It will probably be a bit longer until passangers get on an airplane with no pilots but cargo is on the way out.

that will never happen. as in never.

As a retired former HEMES pilot, Chief Pilot & DO I can assure anyone the pilot shortage is for real. My ex-Army Black Hawk son used the GI Bill to acquire his FW ratings. Eleven months later he is a CRJ FO and In another 12 months he will be eligible for the Legacy carriers. The airlines have historically been (incorrectly) jaded against RW pilots. The reason this negagive perception has changed so dramatically is for two reasons:

1. The pilot shortage.

2. The actual performance of RW pilots in FW Part 121 OPS.

It took #1 for #2 to occur. Without a legit pilot shortage the status qua would still be.

There is definitely a pilot shortage right now.  It seems to run in cycles, with one apperaing every decade or so, and then being ended, mostly by economic downturns or sometimes by global events.

The United States is set up where air travel or automobile travel are a persons only travel options.  We don't have a viable commercial rail transport system so as it stands, the US is dependent on air travel for the foreseeable future, creating an outsize need for pilots.  

My two cents 

The global air travel market is soft and air cargo is down, likely due to inflation.  Domestic travel is strong right now.  To me this indicates regional airline hiring wil probably remain strong while legacy airlines may drop off a bit.  There is a definite window of opportunity, but conservatively I would plan on being at regional for a long time (10-12 years) and one should plan accordingly.  

Another pandemic could easily put the brakes everything, as could a global recession or banking crisis.  How probable you think either of those events are should dictate your next career move.  If you are going to make the move I would consider doing it sooner rather than later, as the window of opportunity may be quickly slammed shut. 

I do think the retirement age is going to change in the near future. The policy is already written. People are saying it will go to 70.  I think it's going to as long as a pilot can get a medical.  This will have a huge impact on the industry.  The major airlines will slow hiring, which will cause regional airline hiring to slow.  Some airlines will declare bankruptcy or merge and renegotiate pay and bonuses.  No mystery here, it's what happened the last time.  It will effectively end what we are seeing now.  

It has been proposed raising it to 67, not 70. This would only mitigate the airline pilot shortage, certainly not solve it. I'm not sure how you come up with airlines going bankrupt because they have more pilots, but I'm sure you don't either. It obviously did not "happen the last time". A common tactic employed by liars is to make up facts and then try to pass them off as universally accepted in order to support an erroneous conclusion. Case in point: the airline passenger market is not soft. Another weak tactic: the good old "people are saying".

The age 67 rule proposed by the senate is temporary, could go back to 65, stay at 67, or eventually go to 70 like Part 135 operators.  That is what I meant by the rule is already written.

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/new-rule-allows-voluntary-70-year-old-age-limit-for-charter-fractional-pilots/

"I'm not sure how you come up with airlines going bankrupt becuase they have more pilots"

Seriously! It's simple economics. When overhead exceeds revenue it can lead to bankruptcy.  When an airline hires a new pilot it doesn't see a return for several months.  A new pilot is solely a cost since they generate no revenue for months.  Airlines used to not pay or pay new hire pilots at a reduced rate during training.  The pilot market doesn't permit that anymore.  American is facing possible bankruptcy (again) while they are actively hiring pilots.  Too much overhead, not enough revenue.

https://www.traveldailymedia.com/american-airlines-bankruptcy-risk-grows/p>

It did happen the last time.  When the airline retirement age went from 60 to 65 in 2007, there were 10 airline bankruptcies in 2008.  This was partially caused by struggling smaller airlines like ATA retaining high salaries that were expected to depart the carrier coupled with decreased revenues forecasts caused by the subprime meltdown.  Any increase of pilot retirement age will force airlines to retain larger numbers of higher salary pilots. You don't think it will effect their stock price?  More overhead with no significant increase in revenue. 

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/u-s-bankruptcies-and-services-cessations/</p>

"The airline passenger market is not soft"

I said the domestic market isn't soft but the international market is down, as is air cargo.  International travel has not recovered to pre pandemic levels.  

https://www.oag.com/coronavirus-airline-schedules-data

Fuel costs and inflation will still likely effect the domestic market.  Rising costs are dampening forecasts.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/american-airlines-forecasts-higher-profit-buoyant-travel-demand-2023-01-26/

"A common tactic employed by liars is to make up facts"

Yes the big lie of telling people to be cautious before entering an extemely volatile industry like the airlines.  I can back up anything I said and when I offer my opinion I say it's an opinion.  People shouldn't blow smoke up peoples backsides that it is all the rainbows and unicorns in the airline industry.  

I have nothing to gain from lying so why would I lie?  It seems making accusations whenever someone hears something they don't like is par for the course here on JH.  You of course can do whatever you want but if you are contemplating a move to the airlines I would suggest you do it sooner rather than later. 

Sorry but if you are about to leave a decent job for the airlines, you should contemplate being at a regional for a long time, not ever making it to a major airline (most people don't or it takes them decades), and even possibly not making it through training (not everyone does, even experienced fixed wing pilots).  Those ain't no lies and if anyone tells you otherwise they probably have something to gain.

show me on the doll grandpa where the millenial who quit his helicopter job for the airlines hurt you? who cares dude, you sound like a miserable human who's trapped in a career they hate. Airline Hiring has done nothing but help rotor industry pay. I can assure you the headsheds in every rotor company wouldn't have even thought about the raises recently. they are cheap!!! Honestly they probably thought about reducing pay first then realized they had a retention problem. 

the guy is just an airplane groupie/troll. Doubtful any actual flying experience. 

So telling folks to weigh their options before making a radical career change into historically volatile industry is trolling.  Oooookaayy.  

I am trying to offer some actual advice to people that may be considering changing careers. This board doesnt always have to be where amateur comedians try out material.  It is possible to give people helpful information.  Why don't you talk about your experience or offer some of your own insight.  All I get from you is that you believe everything is going to stay the same in regards too hiring and industry stability.  

 Well how did you get your fixed wing time?  The Army, an airline program, on your own out of pocket? What do your coworkers think of their job?  Do you sing the praises of your job and company to your coworkers?  How does all your pro company/pro management stuff go over with them?  

to offer actual advice. that the way it works. sorry, but I don't make the rules.

You guys come off a lot more suspect than I do.  You don't seem to know anything about the airline industry.  If you are going to make the jump I suggest you spend more time learning what you are getting yourself into rather than making lame accusations.  

Another thing you should probably do is brush up on your instrument skills.  The majority of helicopter pilots are fairly weak and many have difficulty in airline training if they don't prepare.  You need to know 91.175 cold.  You should also understand circling approaches, SID's and STAR's.  PBN is a thing now so an understanding of RNP and EPU and their relationship is helpful.  How much do you know about baro-VNAV? Ever flown a GLS approach?  How about a CAT II?  

Its not impossible but a lot of helicopter pilots haven't continued to develop their instrument skills.  They become lax and don't challenge themselves l, doing most of their training with the flight director engaged and their checks at 90 knots.  They suddenly find themselves in a 140 knot world seemingly always behind the aircraft.  Khow to use the flight director but during training hand fly instrument approaches at 120-140 knots to improve your instrument skills.  

OMG a GLS!!!!! What should I do?!?!? Oh yeah, tune up the freq and fly it exactly like an ILS🙄🙄🙄

a good chunk of us army rotor heads who flew ems and were young enough left for the airforce to get the ratings. most are all at airlines now and enjoy it. Fall back during a furlough is run to the guard squadron for orders flying F16, KC135,C17, C130s. fall back to the fall back is run back to a rotor gig until called back from furlough. If you are a young army officer, jumping ship isn't easy due to paper work involved but is worth it! 

never in a million years would we have thought the Airforce would poach helicopter pilots too! 

if you want to take the stay in the army route and go civilian for training that's fine too. Just use the guard to fall back on and rotor jobs if a furlough happens . 

The Air Force once had an IST program for Army pilots.  In the 90's they would even take Warrant Officers and send them to Maxwell for OCS, then to a shortened fixed wing qualification course for former helicopter pilots.  They closed the program to Warrant Officer in the early 2000's, but still took commissioned guys for awhile.  The Guard/Reserve was always an easier route than active duty if you didn't mind the politics. 

I believe the Air Force IST program is currently suspended for all services.

It's not suspended. They are still taking commissioned officers from other services. If you are rotor only going in then they send you to UPT with the kids to go fly again. It's actually fun, keep all your years of flight pay too , lateral move just have to learn stuck wing way. 

I think it's suspended for active duty.  For Warrant Officers they just say to contact and OTS recruiter.  Guard or Reseve may be the only option right now.

https://www.afpc.af.mil/Career-Management/IST/

Coast Guard still has the DCA program but I am pretty sure you would stay Rotary Wing.

most of it is just nonsense regurgitated from years of reading internet forums. be more discerning with what you buy into with all the bs many of these yahoos are feeding you.

and fed ex cutting back because of slow freight doesn't mean it's over bro

job postings are fake. Companies and HR departments don't have time post fake BS online. Our company has 75+ job openings (both pilot, mechanic, and admin) and not one of them are fake.

They aren't fake but often they are not immediate need either, especially at major airlines. Regionals tend to be pretty responsive, but it's not rare to send in an application to a major airline and not hear anything for months, if ever.  Many airlines will open hiring windows where they simply collect applications, most often to fill a pool of applicants they can select for interviews at a later date.  After the interview process it still can take awhile to get a class date, and class dates can get cancelled if the training department can't handle the load, or if circumstances at the airline change.  It's important to remember as I mentioned before, you are not an airline pilot until you complete IOE, so don't burn any bridges and make any radical life changes based on your new job until completing IOE.  

Another type airline application process is the open application.  Regional airlines and airlines with historically a high turnover simply maintain an open application window regardless if they are currently hiring or not, because they expect attrition.  With these job postings you may apply and even interview, only to be placed in a pool for future class dates when they open up at an undetermined time in the future.  

So again while not fake, in many cases job postings are not to fill immediate needs either.  

You obviously are clueless man. The majors are hiring at record pace. Everyone of my peers got a call if they qualify within a week of applying. If you are waiting months or more your app stinks! Or you aren't connected to anyone in the company. I'd suggest going to RTaG convention! folks hired on the spot By majors!! 

Job fairs are good, but they don't occur everyday.  Getting hired is one thing, getting a class date is often another, and then completing IOE is another thing still.   

So your peers got a call.  How long was it before they got an interview, heard they were hired, got a class date, and completed IOE?  

You know as well as I do the more airlines hire, they more their training departments get taxed, and class dates get filled months in advance and you wait and wait.  Be straight with people.  It could take several months depending on the airline from being offered a job to getting a class date and completing IOE.  

and here I thought if you got an airline job, you started flying the next day. this changes everything lol

if you have to keep doing what you're doing for a couple months before you start training, I would just scrap out the whole thing and stick to the low paying EMS job for the rest of your life

Pilots do all kinds of stupid things when they get a new job but not realizing it could be months before they start and they may not make it through training like:

Quitting or putting in your two week notice the next day

Finally telling off the Chief Pilot, DO etc. what you really think of them

Buying that house in West Palm Beach because you read on JH you will be a Captain in no time.

Moving to Fort Worth before you even start training because its American Airlines, and surely you will be based at DFW 

Not studying because surely they will teach you everything you need to know in training. 

Getting impatient and taking another job because you can just quit when you finally get a class date.  

Buying anything you could not previously afford.

Giving your wife any timelines (oh I'll only be on reserve a few months, oh I'll only be at a regional a few years, oh I will make Captain in a year, oh I will be able to bid Dallas next month, oh we will be out of bankruptcy any time now, oh management will sign the new contract any day now, if it was over between me and the rental car agency girl months ago)

don't take the airline job because it will force you to do any number of bad things lol

if you don't but a good roller bag, you will be carrying your stuff around in dollar general bags lol 

You live out of that bag and carry it everywhere you go for weeks at a time.  Get a good one. Your airline should have them at the company store.  United had a store at O'Hare where you could get custom stuff if you go through Chicago.  It's as important to airline flight crew as a helmet is to a helicopter pilot.  Your sarcasm comes solely from a place of ignorance. 

it's important to have something to keep stuff in and make sure you take it with you everywhere you go! and if you were actually an airline pilot, I bet you could have gotten yourself all set up with some really nice custom stuff at ohare

you won't be home for weeks!

for a Wide Body 14 CFR 121 & yes there certainly is a Pilot/Crew shortage & the age factor is gonna make it worst too.

14 CFR 121 and can confirm pilot shortage. thanks for the input, guy that works for a wide body 14 CFR 121

Wanted to point out something.  

There is a major Fixed Wing Comany, that will remain Namless, that is by all Public Accounts, Loosing approximately $65,000,000.00 USD Per Quarter, that Employ's somthing like 700 Pilots.  

They Re-Financed a large portion of their Fleet a Few Months back. 

They are Paying King Air Captains around a $150,000 a Year, according to a Pilot I know who has worked there for over Two Years  

Like I told Him, this Company has all ready lost over $1.5 Billion Dollars. 

They would have to Net $20,000,000 a Quarter for 18 Years to cover the Loss to Date. 

You and I know that will never happen. 

But what will happen when 700 B-300 and XLS Pilots get Laid Off all at once. 

700 Turbine Pilots hitting the Market all at once will erase any shortages for many Years, in my Opinion.  

nothing in that post makes a lick of sense and why all the random capitalized words. Delta alone is hiring over 2,000 pilots this year.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2021-11-11/wheels-ups-loss-widens-it-wrestles-supply#:~:text=Wheels%20Up%20wrestled%20with%20shortages%20of%20flight%20crews,%2459.45%20million%20loss%20despite%20double-digit%20gains%20in%20revenue.

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/wheels-up-reporting-new-financial-losses-proposes-reverse-stock-split/

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/wheels-up-deadline-alert-securities-litigation-partner-james-josh-wilson-encourages-investors-who-suffered-losses-exceeding-100-000-in-wheels-up-to-contact-him-directly-to-discuss-their-options-301804706.html

but your right. 
nothing to see here.

yes I used lower case for you.  
didn't know if you had a safe place to go calm down at.  

Wanted to point out something.  

There is a major Fixed Wing Comany, that will remain Namless, that is by all Public Accounts, Loosing approximately $65,000,000.00 USD Per Quarter, that Employ's somthing like 700 Pilots.  

They Re-Financed a large portion of their Fleet a Few Months back. 

They are Paying King Air Captains around a $150,000 a Year, according to a Pilot I know who has worked there for over Two Years  

Like I told Him, this Company has all ready lost over $1.5 Billion Dollars. 

They would have to Net $20,000,000 a Quarter for 18 Years to cover the Loss to Date. 

You and I know that will never happen. 

But what will happen when 700 B-300 and XLS Pilots get Laid Off all at once. 

700 Turbine Pilots hitting the Market all at once will erase any shortages for many Years, in my Opinion.  

This might be the dumbest comment of the year. AMC has 147 internal pilot openings versus 103 nurse AND medic combined. Yup, definitely only phantom postings. You sir, are not very smart.

that wheels up declaring bankruptcy would end the pilot shortage is right up there

an airplane pilots bag of clothes is just as critical as a helicopter pilot helmet because everybody knows how dangerous it is to fly without clean underwear

Has nothing to do with a pilot shortage.  They're actually getting rid of all the privatley owned ground transports too.  But, you read a one liner and you've got all the answers.  Must me a Duck Dynasty Terrorist.

nobody said anything about it being because they are short pilots.