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Well, the Great Pilot Shortage





Well, the Great Pilot Shortage   

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Author: Reality Check   Date: 4/20/2023 12:55:32 PM  +2/-1   Show Orig. Msg (this window) Or  In New Window

The age 67 rule proposed by the senate is temporary, could go back to 65, stay at 67, or eventually go to 70 like Part 135 operators.  That is what I meant by the rule is already written.


https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/new-rule-allows-voluntary-70-year-old-age-limit-for-charter-fractional-pilots/


"I'm not sure how you come up with airlines going bankrupt becuase they have more pilots"



Seriously! It's simple economics. When overhead exceeds revenue it can lead to bankruptcy.  When an airline hires a new pilot it doesn't see a return for several months.  A new pilot is solely a cost since they generate no revenue for months.  Airlines used to not pay or pay new hire pilots at a reduced rate during training.  The pilot market doesn't permit that anymore.  American is facing possible bankruptcy (again) while they are actively hiring pilots.  Too much overhead, not enough revenue.


https://www.traveldailymedia.com/american-airlines-bankruptcy-risk-grows/p>

It did happen the last time.  When the airline retirement age went from 60 to 65 in 2007, there were 10 airline bankruptcies in 2008.  This was partially caused by struggling smaller airlines like ATA retaining high salaries that were expected to depart the carrier coupled with decreased revenues forecasts caused by the subprime meltdown.  Any increase of pilot retirement age will force airlines to retain larger numbers of higher salary pilots. You don't think it will effect their stock price?  More overhead with no significant increase in revenue. 


https://www.airlines.org/dataset/u-s-bankruptcies-and-services-cessations/</p>

"The airline passenger market is not soft"


I said the domestic market isn't soft but the international market is down, as is air cargo.  International travel has not recovered to pre pandemic levels.  

https://www.oag.com/coronavirus-airline-schedules-data


 

Fuel costs and inflation will still likely effect the domestic market.  Rising costs are dampening forecasts.


https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/american-airlines-forecasts-higher-profit-buoyant-travel-demand-2023-01-26/


"A common tactic employed by liars is to make up facts"


Yes the big lie of telling people to be cautious before entering an extemely volatile industry like the airlines.  I can back up anything I said and when I offer my opinion I say it's an opinion.  People shouldn't blow smoke up peoples backsides that it is all the rainbows and unicorns in the airline industry.  


I have nothing to gain from lying so why would I lie?  It seems making accusations whenever someone hears something they don't like is par for the course here on JH.  You of course can do whatever you want but if you are contemplating a move to the airlines I would suggest you do it sooner rather than later. 


Sorry but if you are about to leave a decent job for the airlines, you should contemplate being at a regional for a long time, not ever making it to a major airline (most people don't or it takes them decades), and even possibly not making it through training (not everyone does, even experienced fixed wing pilots).  Those ain't no lies and if anyone tells you otherwise they probably have something to gain.

 
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Well, the Great Pilot Shortage +3/-22 was great while it lasted 4/19/2023 8:58:50 PM